Anybody who’s been keeping tabs on the
situation in the Ukraine at the moment will have noticed that things have finally
come to a standstill. What does this mean for the future of the country
considering its larger problems?
Over the course of the weekend it seems that
the leaders of the Ukraine have finally come to an accord. The president was
kicked out, the protesters have stopped marching and elections have been called
for May.
It would seem that the situation has finally
settled. However Oliver Rawlings readers I would argue that this is part of
recurring problems that elections aren’t going to solve.
Ukraine has been in this position before,
multiple times. I would argue that in order to solve the problem for good we
need to go deeper than just calling for another election. We need to look at
the basic cultural divide that haunts the Ukraine and has done for decades.
The Ukraine for a long time was either under
direct Russian control or a client state of the much larger nation. Indeed for
most of its life it was either a part of the Russian Empire or the Soviet
Union. However the west of the Ukraine has been, at other points in its
history, Polish, Austrian, Hungarian etc.
This means that there’s a basic cultural divide
in the country, indeed this divide is what led to the clash in the first place.
The protests were sparked by the Russian friendly government after they turned
down a trade deal with the EU in favour of closer ties with Putin’s autocracy.
This is what sparked the riots. People in the
East rely on Russia and when they threatened to pull away trade, the government
had to protect their interests. However the people in the west of the Ukraine
were hoping that EU trade deals would bring living standards more in line with
those enjoyed in the west.
This is a problem that runs deeper. What will
happen in May is that the Ukraine will most likely elect a EU friendly
government, then things will be quiet for a time before they make a decision
that’s unpopular with the other half of the country. The merry-go round goes
round and round as it were.